With almost 63 million cases globally and 1.3 million deaths, no pandemics in the recent history has been so mercilessly devoured humanity as before. While the pandemic is still roaring its ugly head across the continents, countries, civilizations, cultures and cities, healthcare workers are at the epicenter of these tragedy, helping humanity to cope up with the calamity.
The medical community has paid a significant price in this struggle with the pandemic. We have lost doctors and healthcare workers to safeguard humanity during this crisis.
Especially, the elderly doctors and those with comorbidities are more vulnerable. Below chart depicts the spread of COVID-19 within the health care workers. Amongst the speiclaities, Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Critical Care are the most predisposed to fatalities from the disease.
I am citing a story of one such Corona Warrior who lost to eternity while treating Covid patients. Dr. Sudhir Washimkar acquired COVID while taking care of his patients at Barjeel Hospital, Al Ain.
Dr Sudhir Washimkar, Barjeel Hospital, Al Ain
I am appending few citations of losses from the medical community. Please visit those at the end of this blog.
What have we learned?
That doctors are the only one who came to the rescue of the common man. They too have families and despite the risk, they too fight like soldiers on the frontiers.
It is pertinent to follow adequate risk assessment, implement protective interventions and strictly adhere to the standards laid down for PPE, and enhanced protection against infection to protect doctors and other health care professionals from coronavirus.
Work – Shift hours should be calibrated to reduce stress and doctors should ensure that they take adequate measures such as Vitamin C, Vitamin D and Zinc and other supplements. However, it is equally important to actively participate in exercise and Yoga, that will help in rejuvenating them.
It is time the common man dispel the misunderstanding about the profession. It is right time, that professionals should introspect and ensure ethical guidelines are adhered to to sustain the respect of the common man since their dedication is highly noble and sacrosanct to the sustenance of mankind.
It got up at 4.30 AM and checked my phone for some anticipated messages. It was unbelievable to reconcile that Dr. Sheetal Amte was no more. It was like a nightmare, unbelievable.
Dr. Sheetal Amte, CEO Anandwan, Maharashtra, India.
Though 15 years younger than me, I was recently introduced to her because of the Alumnus group. We talked about preventing COVID as well as about her father’s health. Also saw her interacting with the group with so much energy and vitality.
I knew about her work at Anandwan and her vision of expanding the work as envisioned by Dr. Baba Amte. She was a true star that shone in the sky, not just because of her exemplary work but also because of the adoption of technology, like the use of blockchain and AI, to integrate those in the service of people.
Dr. Amte was a true hero, like our soldiers, who toiled for the downtrodden and those who are abandoned. Not many realize the sacrifices made by these selfless people. I truly call them Saint. However, we never realize the torment and the tribulations that they pass through while dedicating themselves to such a noble cause.
A Note to All – Let us focus and remember the positivity she created and let us not speculate but give her and her family the privacy to deal with this grief.
I remember a few lines from my earlier blog, ‘Today is what matters most”
Today is what matters most
Today is a reflection of yesterday
Today is a future we build today
Today belongs to you, do that today
Live and enjoy today and leave the past behind, past is an existence of a reality that paves way for today and that provides a vision and mission for tomorrow. Past is valuable, it’s our treasure trove, our source of wisdom, only if we know how to carve out our future optimistically and confidently.
At this moment, I pray to the Lord to keep her soul at peace and give strength to her family to deal with this calamity. I would like to add, let us keep positive thoughts and live with those.
A grave mistake in the imposition of a universal and global lockdown is the impact on the economy. Let us be open, the lockdown was boisterous, more with nationalistic fervor and less on science and an understanding of the principles of disease transmission. Sometimes back, I wrote about the concept of degree of separation and retrospectively, that explains the unsolved and enigmatic transmission in Europe and non-transmission of the virus in Shanghai despite Wuhan being badly impacted.
Learning from the ‘Kelly Criterion’
First unraveled in 1956, The Kelly Criterion helps with applying the IT principles to gambling and investment. In a simple sense, it is about risk management and seize and sizing the opportunities despite the challenging situation. Though the principle cannot be used as is, the underlying fundamentals remain the same.
A grave mistake in the imposition of a universal and global lockdown is the impact on the economy. Let us be open, the lockdown was boisterous, more with nationalistic fervor and less on science and an understanding of the principles of disease transmission. Sometimes back, I wrote about the concept of degree of separation and retrospectively, that explains the unsolved and enigmatic transmission in Europe and non-transmission of the virus in Shanghai despite Wuhan being badly impacted.
Credits: Brookings Institute
It is unwise to blame policymakers or the executioners; understanding the crus of the new problem through a different set of eyes is thus critical. As, Einstein famously said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” SARS CoV2 posed a similar challenge. We used the old yardstick to measure the new problem. Relying too much on R nout, to define such a critical national and global policy was such a deficit in our thinking. We have seen, despite lockdowns, we haven’t seen a complete break in the transmission of the cycle. Something is definitely amiss. Not that the virus has learned some tricks better than the natural laws, but the fact that we haven’t understood the complete spectrum, of dodging the virus. The economy is the lifeblood. How can we survive without an ongoing economy?
Cognitive dissonance: Dichotomy or Anomalous Behavior
We see the severe and widening chasm between several key parameters, typically called dichotomous or anomalous behavior. I was talking with my uncle back in India. He stays in our ancestral village where we own agricultural land. I asked him how is Covid-19 in our native village? Is it disrupting the agricultural activities of the Rabi crop cycle? He said, there is no COVID-19 in the village or the surrounding villages, despite our village is just 9 miles from a moderately big city of 1.5 million. On further questioning, he said, those working in the town, keep themselves isolated if not quarantined. If this is a fair data point that I can trust, and if I can extrapolate, then it is a seminal observation that will provide deep insight from such lockdown of the villages? Does that mean, we have to let the village interact with the Town? What would be the right model to break the transmission cycle and keep the economy moving in the countryside? Understand, though integrated, the metropolitan and countryside economy are two different arms that offer support to the national economy. More so, the countryside economy is still at the center stage of the national economy and provides a foundation for the national economy and not vice versa. At least if one arm continues, we are still in good shape. This is a key observation for any agriculturally leaning economy.
Let us visit another example. Many amongst you might have seen the stock market index. I call it sentiment, not a true reflection or an indicator of the business activities. Look at the divergence between the stock market index and the ground realities. This is not just afflicting the US, most economies are in this state. India is no exception. China can be, because everything is well masked and we truly don’t know the true nature of the devastation, despite receiving contradictory cues about the health of the Chinese economy. The business has been almost stalled, businesses across have been hurt because of the tortuous and tumultuous perversion of the virus as it is wading its way through the different strata of society. Is there a connection between the indicators and the health of the economy?
Such divergences create cognitive dissonance on the collective consciousness of the common man and result in defiance, that ultimately takes a toll, on the health as well as the economy of the nation and the global economy. Especially, this comes after the world had just recovered from the massive recession of 2008-09. Since 2000, post dotcom bubble burst, the economy has pretty much been dragged, by demand and has truly not been sprouting spontaneously.
Below excerpts from New York Times, “India’s economy shrank 7.5 percent in the three months that ended in September compared with a year earlier, government figures showed on Friday. The data reflects the deepening of India’s severest recession since at least 1996 when the country first began publishing its gross domestic product numbers. The new figures firmly ensconced India’s position among the world’s worst-performing major economies, despite expansive government spending designed to rescue the thousands of small businesses severely battered by its long, hastily imposed lockdown”.
If we cannot call the migrations of birds, animals and fishes as unnatural, how can we restrict the migration of human as unnatural? Is it appropriate to create barriers using laws, policies and worst, build walls to stop this natural phenomenon? Does that mean we should remove all barriers on immigration? Certainly not, we need to develop controlled migration so that the areas that offer better sustenance persists to favor life.
In this article, I have cited some natural phenomenon, that exist for millennia, that define the laws of nature. (Word count 655; reading time 3 minutes).
In the frozen history of times and evolution, we may be presuming mankind has achieved significant progress in their evolution, however, if we are what we see, then there certainly is a gap, a distinct hiatus in our achievements. I am not sure if you all see what I see, but certainly, we all have lost a significant patch in our history. We may presume that humans have achieved a great stride and progress. However, progress is a snapshot, not seen through the eyes of continuity, but some amongst you may agree, as a continuum, progress displays a bleak hiatus, a chasm that we have to unearth.
Despite humans being the one bestowed with intellect, wisdom, mobility, insight to philosophy, spirituality, and scientific pursuit, it is perfidy that we have achieved so minuscule, so little. We sound so contented and basks with our achievements, in science, technology but we hardly ever recognize that we are so philosophically, intellectually, and cognitively ramshackled, and handicapped that, we hardly realize our progress is lopsided. In fact, our progress has made us so blind-sighted, that we consider our current technological, and material advances as a great strides in the evolutionary process. In fact, we have devolved under the aegis of advancing science and technology. Let me cite an example of our devolutionary self –
Immigrations – Cormorants, Boobies and Anchovies
Boobies are a type of seabirds that hunt fish at deep seas. However, unlike Cranes, Boobies and Cormorants dive deep inside the water, sometimes to their depth of 6 meters, chase and capture their prey (Of course, they have evolved with a mechanism to carry oxygen and protect themselves when they dive deep with a great splash, an evolutionary mechanisms that have been set up since the Miocene periods of earth’s history).
However, has anyone objected to the migration of Cormorants, Boobies in their hunt for Anchovies? Almost, 5 million birds migrate annually, to thrive on the anchovies, who themselves thrive on the nutrients brought by the Humboldt, the under currents that bring the nutrient rich currents, from Antarctica.
If migration is to be blamed, can we blame, Humboldt? The Anchovies? Or the Cormorants and Boobies? How can we stop the migration of birds? Can we call this immigration for natural resources unnatural?
Cormorants and Boobies are not alone. We see several cases of such natural migrations that are driven by nature, tied with nature, that we can almost call it natural. It will be safe to call this natural if we think we should not call it illegal and try to stall it.
A dolphin – Bird Nexus
Well, let me cite another astonishing example of a Shoal of Maceral, Dolphins, and the Sea Birds. Every year, the dolphins migrate to an area with rich food sources. It is surprising, the nutrients are not brought by the rivers draining into the sea, but by huge swaths of dust (almost 500 tons per year) being blown into the Atlantic, that provides a great milieu for the growth of the seaweeds, which are ultimately eaten by the macerals, that the dolphins survive. Some species must be native to these regions and they definitely can call it their territory. How do we stop the immigrating Dolphins from entering this area?
Well Fast forward, we created immigration walls, we call those legal, and dedicate it to the citizenry that we protect, and label the transgression as compliance or non-compliant and persecute it as illegal. If we can’t call the immigration of birds unnatural, how well can we call the migration of human beings illegal? Is it because we are intellectually evolved enough to protect our territory? Going against nature and building such walls is evolution or devolution?
It does not mean, I am against creating a barrier for migration. We definitely want a controlled migration that will not destroy the prosperous areas, but we should principally be in favor of migration, it will be unnatural to suppress it and any suppression of nature ultimately leads to an eruption of chaos somewhere, where the tectonic plates find a weakness.
Ahh I love China. A totalitarian state never has to deal with the dilemma of a democracy. Life if simple, just lease your intellect to the state and work like a hen in the poultry. You have the best of the living conditions, nutrients, also a few micronutrients and absolutely controlled temperature. I love life in Chicken Farms! They have everything to serve the state (owner) and can live their stipulated life until the state desires. Let me admit, more than the blog, I liked the links shared, especially from Freedom House, Philosophy forum and the Economist.
Ahh, I so much love China and Russia
Well, liberal democracy has to walk along with all the stakeholders, unlike a totalitarian state. However, when it comes to imposing critical and essential restrictions, as was done by New York that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, to contain and control Coronavirus spread in New York, it was struck down by the conservative supreme court bench in favor of the Orthodox Jewish Organization and the Roman Catholic, the former having a high incidence of COVID.
As I read from the New York Times (link cited below), “The restrictions are strict. In shifting “red zones,” where the coronavirus risk is highest, no more than 10 people may attend religious services. In slightly less dangerous “orange zones,” which are also fluid, attendance is capped at 25. This applies even to churches that can seat more than 1,000 people”. “The Constitution does not forbid states from responding to public health crises through regulations that treat religious institutions equally or more favorably than comparable secular institutions, particularly when those regulations save lives,” Justice Sotomayor wrote. “Because New York’s Covid-19 restrictions do just that, I respectfully dissent.”
I am not sure how these numbers arise? 10, 25, 50, 100 etc. I have seen such flaunt numbers from different administrations, only to create fault lines and not fix the solution. At least my simple logic dictates that these numbers are irrelevant, and should directly be correlated with the index case or the sentinel case.
Is a numeric threshold right?
I was talking with my uncle back in India and I realized, the small village where our farms are, have no COVID in their vicinity. Obviously, I was concerned for the second crop and other agricultural activities. The best practice is to quarantine the cities and not the countryside, which as free of disease. Let the commerce flow and let the business flourish if the impact is minimal.
When I talk with my network in China, I see that the lockdown has strictly adhered to. Well, who is right? Liberal democracy with one foot backward and one foot forward, or a totalitarian state with both feet aligned?
There can never be a cookie-cutter approach or a standardized way to resolve this conundrum. Our only recourse is to evaluate each situation separately? A lot of human intelligence (Can AI help?). Irrespective, it is an individual choice versus the state responsibility towards all. Science cannot be ignored despite knowing its incompleteness. However, we can only see on the basis of current visibility.
It is obvious, that a bench is favoring a decision despite its lack of requisite (medical) background, competence and expertise to assess public health and its accountable for the people. At least for now, the public concern is thrown out of the window.
It is hard to customize and still retain the luster of the fundamental amendments (the first, second, etc.). However, it is a rope walk and if you ask a lazy person like me, I love China!
BRI and CPEC are already under financial and operational pressure to either scuttle or park their ongoing initiatives. India has no role to play in their self destructive implosions.
Credit: Economic Times,
None of the infrastructure development projects carried out by China in Pakistan have any Pakistani contractors. From workers, to raw material to management, everything is being by the Chinese.
Obviously, where are the resources – workers know how to run kalashnikov, banks and military knows how to make money and management has never been honed. So, it is not a wrong decision not the Pakistanis execute the blueprint of CPEC. Anyways, it doesn’t fit the Chinese model of business. Irrespective of the country where they are building infrastructure, the Chinese companies are owning those almost 100%.
Now, let’s visit CPEC dynamics
China is truly constrained on funds and revenue, for several reasons – vast infrastructure projects that have doubtful ROI in immediate future, its over 50 ghost cities, its own military and cyber incursions and now the pandemic. Keynesian principle has not stimulated the economy, not because it lost relevance, however not utilizing the principles behind the principle.
Pakistan never has a culture of entrepreneurship
Barring individual efforts, the country has never offered a milieu for growth and industry. Neither does it have the ability to repay. More-so, recently China demanded a higher interest rate. If you calculate the payback interest and principle, you will realize these CPEC are costing Pakistani Rs. 8328 per person. Agreed, not all infrastructure should be considered from the perspective of tangible ROI. We need to factor in the opportunities it creates. However, in this case where are the revenues to service the loan?
Face Saving
It is graceful to not admit any of the above but to put the usual suspect, India. Skeptics may differ but the decision is left to the future to decide.
They know this will not solve their problem but facing is an art, that conjures the present, unlikely to save from the realities and future.
As they say in jurisprudence, suppression of evidence is evil than the crime, China did not allow independent global bodies to investigate the crime scene. That’s culpable, just not heinous and shameful.
Now Xi is proposing a global firewall, to ward off the virus… too late, really amoral. (word count 450, reading time 2-3 minutes).
Though the debate on how the virus originated is far from over, the entire world is literally sizzling with the impact of the pandemic. Almost after 12 million globally affected, over a million in death from Covid-19, a completely shattered global economy, the impact has been severe, especially for those who are economically deprived – irrespective of the countries or families.
Picture Credits: Shotaro Tani and CK Tan, Nikkei Asia Review; November 22, 2020 02:38 JST Updated on November 22, 2020 05:04 JST
It is natural for the viruses to jump in the man-animal barrier, however, it is strange for the genome of the new virus, almost assembled in a manufacturing unit. A biologist will understand the fidelity of the genome and how the ideal natural variations exist. Several treatises exist on this conundrum.
However, as they say in jurisprudence, suppression of evidence is evil than the crime, China did not allow independent global bodies to investigate the crime scene. That’s culpable, just not heinous and shameful.
Things don’t end there, knowing the diversion of defense priorities, and the weaknesses in economies, and the national tragedies, Xi ruthlessly embarked on his grand plan of Land Grab and consolidate the communist hegemony further. South China Sea, Ladhak are events fresh on the canvass of global memory. This is on top of all its imperialist exploitation of all vulnerable economies.
‘Global Firewall’ – Really?
At the recently concluded Group of 20 Economies, hosted online by Saudi Arabia, Xi recommended that nations should build a global firewall to safeguard against the virus. To enable economies to reopen, Xi proposed setting up an international mechanism of health codes linked to the polymerase chain reaction test. The mechanism assigns colored QR codes to citizens based on their COVID-19 test results; those who test negative are given a green QR code on their mobile phones, allowing them to skirt some social restrictions. The mechanism has been in use in China since February.
The problem with morals is that they can be equally preached by amoral with disdain. The problem with the recipient like me, I truly would like this sermon to come from those on moral pedestals. We can possibly presume, he is not preaching morals. If that is true, he possibly is trying to assure that his economy is not further hot or the economies of his customers are safeguarded. Is he realizing the heat from a poor global economy?
Xi and the CPC are tyrannical and criminally ruthless in dominating the world. China’s CPC, Is amongst one of the bane and pain of the emerging world order. Can amoral truly have the conviction to preach morals, and occupy moral high chair?
COVID-19 has rendered global economies in shambles, that includes the US and China, the two economic leaders. Where, the US does not claim to be immune from this, and provides transparency, China obviously lack transparency and does not provide any. In fact, China markets its GDP at 4.9% which is false.
In this blog, I have captured the economy of China is three graphs. The GDP, the debt and the internal rate of returns (IRR).
Also, read the blog, on the Glutted Economy of China, which is a prelude to this blog. Reading time 3-4 minutes, Words 453.
Another supporting evidence to support my hypothesis on Glutted Economy. Nikkei Asian Review is a Japanese newspaper. News reporting is very reliable. I have shared the links from Nikkei Asia Review below.
In my earlier blog, I have captured a pictorial view of the original landmass that belongs to China. Search for “Not so Confucius”. It has a history of its acquisitions. You may visit that blog here.
In another blog, I had referenced to the Glutted Economy of China. Then, China has just released handsome figures on GDP. I had supported the rationale why it cannot be a healthy economy and liked China to a sly businessman who shows overt signs of success and pompousness when the earnings are actually tanked, to get the best of the outside world. That’s China, right now. That too is captured in another blog.
You are right, China is a threat to global order – democracy, totalitarian, autocratic, theosophical, or socialist structure.
I have been following China closely for over a decade and I am a staunch opponent of CPC, their ideology, and operational model. Then the western world was gaga about China. Just two years back when I wrote about China to two core RSS workers, they dismissed it as a Western ideology. Few months after Ladakh, I wrote again and now we are aligned. It’s a pity that we never realize the intensity of fire when it occurs at our neighbor’s home, we ignore. When it happens at our home, we realize the seriousness.
Of course, FDI is absolutely ruled out but negative bond rates mean China is asking its Citizenry to purchase bonds, even if that means losing money. In a simple sense, China is asking its citizen for money to support its fiduciary obligations.
Now, that means it’s a glut in the economy, GDP has certainly tanked. All ostentatious and hairy goals need to be revised. All incursions, like the South China Sea, Ladhak, etc should be reversed. The Belt and Road initiative needs to be shelved (Gwadar port will definitely be delayed), and building infrastructure for dilapidated economies should be stalled.
Xi has to head this fiduciary pressure, or else this will initiate a resentment that will be built over some time.
Compare the global economies in the second quarter of 2020. Data sourced from Our World in Data.
China sells bonds at a negative rate for the first time
We all know Joe was a Vice President under President Obama. Of course, that eight years tenure was remarkable in achievements and misses. However, it carries the risk of bringing the same mind set as earlier and the key concern with problem space, is that if you try to solve the problems with the same fervor and approach as earlier, it is bound for failure.
Unless President Elect consciously makes a choice to select his options, and unless enough time is spent in understanding the changed realities on the new world, he is unlikely to make significant dent to resolution of existing scenarios. In fact, there is a potential for situations going downhill and precipitating the Trump phenomenon. Understandable, four years are not enough for a significant change to happen, but four years are enough for laying a foundation for the future global and national engagement.
Good Morning Biden, the world is a new place now!
Now that the hand recount from Georgia is over, the winner is clearly Joe Biden, unless a sabotage or a coup is underway. With Georgia in Joe Biden’s plate, the validity of the count is much reinforced. That is the reason, why I feel this is a fresh morning for Joe, the President Elect.
What’s in store for the future?
We all know Joe was a Vice President under President Obama. Of course, that eight years tenure was remarkable in achievements and misses. However, it carries the risk of bringing the same mind set as earlier and the key concern with problem space, is that if you try to solve the problems with the same fervor and approach as earlier, it is bound for failure. Unless President Elect consciously makes a choice to select his options, and unless enough time is spent in understanding the changed realities on the new world, he is unlikely to make significant dent to resolution of existing scenarios. In fact, there is a potential for situations going downhill and precipitating the Trump phenomenon. Understandable, four years are not enough for a significant change to happen, but four years are enough for laying a foundation for the future global and national engagement.
The last decade saw major populists taking over several democracies. A quick revisit will help us understand, democracy has given way to demagogy, that’s barring Putins Russia and Xi’s China. The rise of Duterte in the Philippines, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Johnson in the UK, Modi in India, Erdogan in Turkey are just few handful examples. Of course, I am not counting Pakistan, which has a democratic face to the military dictatorship.
Added to these are more spicy stuff happening in the Middle East. Syria, and Iran are consolidating their grip, whereas, feudalist and autocrats are advancing their handshake to those espousing the values and torch bearer of democracies, such as France and Germany.
Even those countries who are deeply committed to democratic ideals are leaning on China for economic support. Spain and a few more western European nation are leading that trend.
Given this heady mix of toxic cocktail, the ideas of yesteryears, such as replacing democracy, world politically and militarily dominated by the US, unilateral wars etc are unlikely to be productive.
Biden is taking the mantle of leadership under such circumstances. A fresh and distinct mindset is required. Can this be achieved by adding yesteryears bureaucrats? It’s needs deep introspection and reflection of the events that have unfurled on the global stage. Just accepting the populist leaders and offering a collaborative handshake is not enough.
The world has to understand the phenomenon called Trumpism (not related with Donald Trump), and see why we left behind such a huge swath of population, that such populist and radical nationalists have evolved?
This is a rude reality that Biden will awaken to while taking charge of the US on Jan 20, 2021.
Leaders reconcile only if they have their ear on the ground. When they are surrounded by the coterie, it is a downhill path, because they lose touch with the realities.
With Xi, he has taken an aggressive stand on corruption and that has pit him up at a moral high ground. He has gone into a state of complacency wherein, he is thinking that he is the highest moral policing. In addition, he has replaced the inner coterie with loyalist, extended his term until 2035 and making everyone work concertedly in that direction.
I believe, Xi’s state of mind is detrimental than corruption. Absolute power corrupts absolutely, and it is difficult to course correct. Only leaders who are guided by a strong moral compass, will course correct, and at this moment, it is unlikely from him to reverse and change direction unless external and internal realities demand a change. Xi is not alone. Phillip Stephen from Financial Times rightly said, “The fate of many Chinese emperors through the centuries shows their authority to have been absolute until the moment of their fall”. Most Leaders lean on confirmation bias and Xi is no different, when he is leaning on the coterie of sycophants for their nod.
Blindsided
I always differ with a general presumption that a national leader is culprit means the entire nation is likewise. Herein, i always insist, that people and politics are different. People, i.e. the common men, is like anyone like us, less than 2% are outlier on either side, with a polar groups being extremely selfless and the other polar group being truly criminal, the intervening 3 standard deviations (SD) being normal people like us, helpful but apprehensive, focused on themselves and their families but with some benevolence etc.
When I say Chinese, Pakistanis, I definitely want to spare the common men, and implicate the ruling moiety. Agreed, polity defines politics but polity has little choice. An example being the recent US election, or Johnson’s Brexit win. People are limited with choices and options but it is unwise to deduce and generalize.
The unfortunate part is the destiny of the common man is in the hands of such pitiful leaders, and that defines our history, and as we all know, history is written by the winners.
mymilieu.org 