Month: October 2016

War is inevitable

A time comes when we have to take the weapon in our hand and fight but not before we have explored alternate options of resolutions. We should not hold PM Modi responsible for the implications of the war. It’s a common man’s decision, he should act and the time is now.

War is inevitable, have we done our ground work?

Twenty years back, when I talked with my friends, family and colleagues, the intensity of angst with Pakistan was simmering. Now, when I see the reactions on social media and from my first hand interaction, I see it is sizzling for war. PM Modi is a reflection of the intensity of outcry from decades of tolerance and frustration of exploring options with Pakistan. Obviously there is a ground swell for forceful assertion, well we know we will dominate that one on one war, that presumes a scenario driven by rage, years of cross border tolerance and attack on our sovereignty and interference in our internal matters.  It is despicable, in no terms acceptable but is it enough to go for war?

If we think that war with Pakistan will be an unilateral affair, we are grossly wrong. First, Pakistan has a distorted perception of the compromise of their Self (respect) and Abru. Attack from India further compromises that vexed self-righteous position. A reaction is bound to follow, it’s adding insult to injury, reaction may range from normal cross border skirmishes (low probability, low impact) to extended and extensive war (high probability, medium impact) to use of nuclear arsenals (low probability, very high impact).

Understand, Pakistan sincerely and truly want to hurt India. They will do everything with that intent. Obviously, India will retaliate, of course with all its might (possibly with nuclear arsenals, if Pakistan goes no holds bar war). The outcome – Pakistan will be permanently obliterated and go into oblivion but we have seen, when anarchy establishes in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and surrounding area, it looms longer and bounces back spewing deadly hatred, not just engulfing India but the entire world.

That’s a scenario presuming one to one wrestling (kushti) between Pakistan and India. Matters don’t remain as simple, China our biggest adversary and the current provocateur, will add fire to the fuel. Our do called recent alignment with the world order will turn their back on India. Irrespective of the provocation, India would have lost the stature – moral, strategic, economic etc. India and Pakistan, both arising from common ethnic stalk, would have permanently harmed each other. China, would have executed their game plan on the subcontinent.

I have already talked about the fallout in terms of human, tangible and intangible losses. We are poorly and completely inapt in dealing with these fallout. With this war, we will push our country back by at least few decades, poverty, lack of opportunities and social frustrations would exacerbate current angst (for details, refer to ‘No place for Bravado!’ (https://mymilieu.org/2016/09/22/no-place-for-bravado).

In software, they always recommend to fix the bug early on, the later we choose to fix, the bigger the cost. Obviously, not having resolved this problem for decades will cost us all these losses. I am weighing in favor of addressing the root cause, we need strategies and we need diplomacy. Do we have those enough? Given a problem space, we need to explore newer options when existing options don’t work. War is an extreme expression of frustration and giving up.

These are not times of repartee or knee jerk reaction, these are times of gaining strength through patience, exploring options for resolution, using strategies etc. We should never be scared of war. War is never a non-option, but yes war is a last option. Even Lord Shiva, the Divine deity tolerated injustice, Nilkanth drank the poison. A time comes when we have to take the weapon in our hand and fight but not before we have exhausted alternate options of resolutions. We should not hold PM Modi responsible for the implications of the war. It’s a common man’s decision, he should act and the time is now.

Am I supporting Pakistan?

In no way I am supporting Pakistan, neither its tactics nor its strategies or activities. I strongly feel, the needs of the time are to explore further options within this problem space.

At times, war becomes unavoidable, says PM Narendra Modi – http://toi.in/GWXtqZ34/a20ei

India and Pakistan: ‘We are like a divorced couple’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-37555309

Yuddha, Buddha: PM gives statesmanlike Dussehra speech, senior BJP leaders including ministers must heed it

Yuddha, Buddha: PM gives statesmanlike Dussehra speech, senior BJP leaders including ministers must heed it

Seven Ways to Wage War on Pakistan, Several Reasons Not to Do So

Have seen destruction, don’t go to war: villagers in India-Pakistan border areas

War or No War? India Debates Its Course of Action Against Pakistan

How India can motivate Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism

 

Reactive Aggression or Proactive Pragmatism

Pakistan is fast emerging as a classic example of a failed state due to adoption of a vexed and vitiated philosophy confounding its operating model. It is not only a laggard on most development milestones, but fast emerging as a hotbed of international terrorism, lawlessness and despotism and manipulation.

Unfortunate though, an impressive ideology of its founders has been lost and it has become a cauldron of poverty, backwardness, radical views, brutality, injustice, violence, lack of opportunities, and a melting pot for radicalism and terrorism. Terrorism, hand in glove with the Military, is flourishing in Pakistan.

Should we react to recent provocations from Pakistan? Or should we explore new strategies to handle this menace of cross border terrorism? These are trying times in our history. This generation and the ones hereafter will bear the brunt of these decisions. Hope wisdom prevails.

It is the destiny of these two nations, seventy years ago, some amongst our own ethnic stock separated on lines of having a country based on religious ideology. Pakistan was thus born. However, over a period of time, it got enmeshed in an internecine and fractious internal strife due to the nefarious nexus between terrorists, military establishment and politicians with an operating model of vengeance, hatred and jealousy.

India, as we know the other nation, embarked upon a development path with comprehensive vision and plan despite being riddled with poverty, deprivation or resources and resultant complex challenges . Modern India emerged through persistence on all of its challenges but a positive philosophy (guided by nationalist leaders with mature governance and a thriving democracy weaved with plural ideologies. India, as it stands today, is leading on several fronts as an international leader,  despite the challenges.

Pakistan is fast emerging as a classic example of a failed state due to adoption of vexed and vitiated philosophy confounding its operating model. It is not only a laggard on most development milestones but notoriously ahead on malicious intent and act, primarily a hotbed of international terrorism, lawlessness and despotism and manipulation. Unfortunate though, an impressive ideology  of its founders has not been successful to influence their operating model and it has become a cauldron of poverty, backwardness, radical views, brutality, injustice, violence, lack of opportunities, and a melting pot for radicalism and terrorism. Terrorism and Military is an industry that flourishes in Pakistan.

Any surgical strike is unlikely to subdue this industry and stop their cross border provocations. Future attempts by the terrorist would morph into more sophisticated, planned and coordinated attacks. While sentiments on waging a full-fledged war are understandable, it is hard to conceive the implications if ultimate weapons of mass destruction are used. It’s a perplexing to understand how to stop this menace.

For India, that would not only be militarily engaging but it will also mean keeping the country in a war readiness posture, not just in the short run but at least for sizable duration of time. This would consume significant revenue and funds would be diverted away from growth providing opportunities.

If we understand Pakistan as a failed model, the key driver towards this failure is the diversion of growth revenue towards militarization and persistent military adventurism against India and Afghanistan. We want to avoid the trap of diverting away from growth. Restrain, thus was pragmatic as ultra-low scale loss better as against significant buildup of capability from defense, to surveillance and resilience.

Should we disembark (on provocation) and walk the reactive path of knee jerk response to emotions (of few soldiers getting killed on the border) or should we explore and adopt new strategies to handle this menace of cross border terrorism? These are trying times in our history. This generation and the ones hereafter will bear the brunt of these decisions. Hope wisdom prevails.

Should India ban Pakistani artists?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

After the internal turmoil evoked ‘Post Uri’, rhetoric’s and the surgical strikes, it’s obviously a natural knee jerk reaction to say ‘No’ – We don’t keep any relations with Pakistan and it’s Citizen?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

Let’s step back and understand the build up to current conflagration is a byproduct of the establishment, a compromised democracy where the army rules and dictates. It’s the army and not the common man, who is responsible. In fact, they are the ones that are deprived. Especially in the case of Pakistan, where democracy never had an opportunity to anchor and prosper, we sincerely have to give dual benefit of doubt. So the current struggle is not with Pakistani (Citizen) but with Pakistan (Establishment).

Understand, common man, be it any country, region or religion, has those same patterns. Their concerns, aspirations, anxieties and struggle are same as ours. Their happiness is the same as ours. Our rouse is against Pakistani establishment, not against their citizen, especially in the case of Pakistan, where they lack that ability to mold the political opinion. If they are legally here, they work within the legal framework, then they should not be declined the opportunity to work in Bollywood.

Ok, if you are still not convinced, let me ask you? In a hypothetical situation, if Indian Government commits a grave situation and US decided to send back all those innocent who emigrated from India, would you support that?

If you are still not convinced, let me ask yet another question. What if few Indian citizens commit a grave crime, do you think India US or any country where that hypothetical situation happens, should cut all diplomatic ties despite the Indian Government being on right foot?

Someone may naturally ask, will they treat Hrithik Roshan the same? Well, let’s not collude our value systems even if the answer is no. To be true, if the politicians or radicals don’t force their opinion, you will most likely see Pakistani voting to see him perform in Pakistan.

Well, let’s differentiate between Citizen and Ruling elite. We can’t preach love, at least let’s treat every citizen with dignity and opportunity. We expect the same and we should reciprocal the same. Let the merit of their performance decide where they ought to be in the Industry. Well, if we differentiate citizen from establishment, I believe, that will embolden our faith in having them continue as artist in India.

Art, like sublime thoughts defining philosophy, transpires humanity. Artists attempt to cross those barriers of religious, geopolitical boundaries, at times which become timeless and invaluable. Boundaries and affiliations have a finite span and keep changing, whereas art remains within the realms of humanity. Such is a supreme nature of art. An artist is an object of depicting those abstract expressions. Fortunately for us, artists are the medium and we humans are bestowed with the supreme sense of that expression. While, it is true that these artists originate in Pakistan, this notion of region is self-defeating and limited. While appreciate art and artist, we should cross those barrier that limit our perception towards art and artists.

With love towards India – Ash

No more of Bollywood for Pakistani artists? http://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/no-more-of-bollywood-for-pakistani-artists/story-yLQJhjt6yQtcGNf3JqCiLM.html

Ban on Pakistani artists http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-ban-on-pakistani-artists-what-om-puri-nagesh-kukunoor-nawazuddin-siddiqui-and-randeep-hooda-said-on-the-issue-2260684

 

Watching International Reaction to Surgical Strike?

This is the post excerpt.

What Next? A change of attitude towards resolution of festering issues is definitely concerning. Such massive support from the masses, at times get deprecating and self-reinforcing and slides us further into complacency and eventually into a war.

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Pakistan, without a moral ground and international support, had to be in a denial mode obviously. Diplomatically, it huddled and tried lobbying across the power centers. That’s the matter with credibility. Once you lose it, it’s hard to gain or garner support.

The surgical strike did not make much of an international impact despite its potential to catapult into a major conflict. Ban Ki Moon offered mediation. US and most developed nations supported India’s posturing.

For India, it is jubilation. social media is caught with frenzy. It’s almost celebratory tone. After decades of tolerance and encroachment on its sovereign soil, it responded. Yes, a transient jubilation is morale boosting. However, a change of attitude towards resolution of festering issues is definitely concerning. Such massive support from the masses, at times get deprecating and self-reinforcing and slides us further into complacency and eventually into a war.

Statement made by the India’s permanent representative at the UN was a mature act as compared to those made by the defense ministers from either country, meant for the consumption of the general populace.

Selected citations

Germany backs India’s strikes, says ‘every state has the right to defend its territory from global terrorism’ –  http://toi.in/itSTJY98/a20ei

Russia welcomes surgical strikes : http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/russia-welcomes-surgical-strikes/article9181510.ece

US lawmakers support India’s surgical strikes across LoC –  http://toi.in/D69phb/a20ei

An unclean slate http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-relation-surgical-strikes-uri-attack-pm-modi-3063892/

Sabre Rattling over Kashmir
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03js4x9

Could There Be War Over Kashmir?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03js4nz

‘Declare Pak Terror Sponsor’: Petition In US Qualifies For Official Response. http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/white-house-petition-to-declare-pak-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-crosses-100-000-signatures-1466880

Democracy has not been tailored to Pakistan’s environment: Pervez Musharraf – http://toi.in/kC0JxY/a20ei

Blog: Terrorism no longer a low-cost option for Pak –  http://toi.in/fXGMXb/a20ei

Pakistan not getting support in UN on surgical strikes issue: Akbaruddin : http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-not-getting-support-at-un-over-surgical-strikes-akbaruddin/article9172142.ece

US lawmakers support India’s surgical strikes across LoC –  http://toi.in/D69phb/a20ei

India says troops cross Kashmir border to attack as crisis escalates https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/29/pakistani-soldiers-killed-surgical-strikes-kashmir-india

India relocates 10,000 from around Kashmir as tensions rise http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/01/asia/kashmir-tensions-evacuations/index.html

India Kashmir strike: The view from Pakistan http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37518200

India strikes at Pakistan-based militants, escalating tensions in Kashmir region http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/pakistan-india-kashmir-1.3783536

Kashmir profile – Timeline
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-16069078

Kashmir – is peace possible?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03ghtd6

Conflict in Kashmir, the prospects for peace
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03bh4zm