Glutted Economy – 2

COVID-19 has rendered global economies in shambles, that includes the US and China, the two economic leaders. Where, the US does not claim to be immune from this, and provides transparency, China obviously lack transparency and does not provide any. In fact, China markets its GDP at 4.9% which is false.

In this blog, I have captured the economy of China is three graphs. The GDP, the debt and the internal rate of returns (IRR).

Also, read the blog, on the Glutted Economy of China, which is a prelude to this blog. Reading time 3-4 minutes, Words 453.

Another supporting evidence to support my hypothesis on Glutted Economy. Nikkei Asian Review is a Japanese newspaper. News reporting is very reliable. I have shared the links from Nikkei Asia Review below. 

In my earlier blog, I have captured a pictorial view of the original landmass that belongs to China. Search for “Not so Confucius”. It has a history of its acquisitions. You may visit that blog here

In another blog, I had referenced to the Glutted Economy of China. Then, China has just released handsome figures on GDP. I had supported the rationale why it cannot be a healthy economy and liked China to a sly businessman who shows overt signs of success and pompousness when the earnings are actually tanked, to get the best of the outside world. That’s China, right now. That too is captured in another blog. 

You are right, China is a threat to global order – democracy, totalitarian, autocratic, theosophical, or socialist structure.  

I have been following China closely for over a decade and I am a staunch opponent of CPC, their ideology, and operational model. Then the western world was gaga about China. Just two years back when I wrote about China to two core RSS workers, they dismissed it as a Western ideology. Few months after Ladakh, I wrote again and now we are aligned. It’s a pity that we never realize the intensity of fire when it occurs at our neighbor’s home, we ignore. When it happens at our home, we realize the seriousness.

Of course, FDI is absolutely ruled out but negative bond rates mean China is asking its Citizenry to purchase bonds, even if that means losing money. In a simple sense, China is asking its citizen for money to support its fiduciary obligations. 

Now, that means it’s a glut in the economy, GDP has certainly tanked. All ostentatious and hairy goals need to be revised. All incursions, like the South China Sea, Ladhak, etc should be reversed. The Belt and Road initiative needs to be shelved (Gwadar port will definitely be delayed), and building infrastructure for dilapidated economies should be stalled. 

Xi has to head this fiduciary pressure, or else this will initiate a resentment that will be built over some time.

Compare the global economies in the second quarter of 2020. Data sourced from Our World in Data.

China sells bonds at a negative rate for the first time

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bond/China-sells-bonds-at-a-negative-rate-for-the-first-time

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/22/china-in-the-post-pandemic-2020s/

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111052/china-debt-beijing-may-cut-belt-and-road-lending-due-domestic

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