Economic slow down is often cyclic and a fact of life. Slowing down or crash landing of Indian Economy is an increasing chatter on the internet. However, a closer look will reveal that the recessionary phenomenon encompasses most major economies including US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Russia, South East Asia (the so called ‘Tiger Economies’ of 2000’s), Brazil, Turkey and oil rich Gulf Nations. Latin American countries such as Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina are acutely going through this recessionary distress with revolts and change of ruling Governments. Venezuela is undergoing severe inflation called stagflation that is spreading the contagion across the borders. Poland and Canada are amongst the only few countries that are showing flying colors despite the adverse global economic head wind.
Nations such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and many African countries, especially those who have subscribed to the String of Pearls (SOP), Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partner (RCEP) and the 54 nations of the Africa Continent Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will face a massive financial challenge while servicing the burgeoning Chinese loans. Countries such as Pakistan, are on the precipice of falling into bankruptcy.
The economic woes are all pervasive and the root cause commonly fall within select patterns. Individual countries have different problems. However, there is common a shared thread and select individual factors. Identifying the patterns for a specific country will help in putting up a strategy for revival. I have focused on articulating the need for a solution within broad problem areas. This blog is not exhaustive and does not go into a detailed root cause analysis or detailed solution building exercise.
Ignored Global Comparison:
In India, private debt in 2017 was 54.5 per cent of the GDP and the general government debt was 70.4 per cent of the GDP, a total debt of about 125 of the GDP, according to the latest IMF figures. In comparison, debt of China was 247 per cent of the GDP. As of October 2018, it stands at approximately CN¥ 36 trillion (US$ 5.2 trillion), equivalent to about 47.6% of GDP. A key gauge of China’s debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks. China’s total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year earlier, the IIF said in a report this week which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.
In the United States, total non-financial private debt is $27 trillion and public debt is $19 trillion. More telling, since 1950, U.S. private debt has almost tripled from 55 percent of GDP to 150 percent of GDP, and most other major economies have shown a similar trend. Cumulative debt stands at 40 trillion dollars. Comparative figures from US reveal that India is not badly hit, considering the numbers released by the Indian Government are trust worthy and credible.
Let us review select Key Performance Indices (KPI’s) of India’s financial health. Here are few interesting figures from the State Of Indian Economy –
- GDP growth is at a 15-year low
- Unemployment is at a 45-year high
- Household consumption is at a four-decade low
- Bad loans in banks are at an all-time high
- Growth in electricity generation is at a 15-year low
The list of highs and lows is long and distressing. But the state of the economy is worrying not because of these disturbing statistics. These are mere manifestations of a deeper underlying malaise that plagues the nation’s economy today. These figures were published in the Hindu, a very reputed and respected daily. When I share independent data from foreign outlet, those are immediately ridiculed as being ‘biased to damage the growing stature of India’.
I was talking with a building contractor friend of mine who has a meaningful business. When prodded on his state of business, he said, everything is so dry and no new constructions are taking place. This is not my isolated discussion. Every now and then, I do probe these questions to people across the globe and India happens to be on the top. Below is a list of industry verticals that are not just sluggish but in recession (more than 2 quarters of slow down beyond certain percent points).
- Service industry
If you factor in the total percent affected, you will notice a major chunk of population that forms the base of the pyramid, is affected because of the slowdown.
What happens now?
Well, families and business entities are at least losing 34-57% of their revenue. That’s a significant number. Spending goes down and tax collection goes down, tax at the POS (point of sales), tax from earning and tax from business.
- Quantitative Easing
- Bad Loans or Risk prone leveraged industry
- Global slowdown
- China – A special mention
- Quantitative Easing:
Well, let us borrow now at cheaper rate from the Govt, or blow up what is saved in RBI (exit RBI Governors), loan or from outside or print currency.
- Bad Loans or Risk prone leveraged industry:
We can’t let this to catapult to a state of anarchy. We have to loan where the potential for defaults are high. Banking, Airlines, Telecom ate common examples. These were bankrupt overnight? The most common folks (shareholders) lost the most. Millions of crores of national treasure disappeared in just a fraction of time.
I disagree with “the Hindu” here. Let us understand, corruption was not just prevalent but endemic and all pervasive. Nothing wrong, if Modi tightened the levers. At least he had guts to do that. No one including the system had shown responsible behavior and if Modi has tightened the noose, nothing wrong about it.
I will elaborate the reasons where we are going wrong, needless and pointless to blame Modi for all the ills. Devaluation and GST came at a wrong time that confluencing along a Global slowdown, on which Modi had little control.
- Global slowdown:
India is not alone. China, UK, Germany, Japan, US, France, Gulf, Russia, Brazil and many Tiger economies (remember the term for ASEAN economies used in 2000) are significantly slowed down.
- China deserves a special mention:
China is the worst affected with 100s of ‘Ghost Cities’, flailing international trade pacts (CPEC, Asean and The revival of the Silk road) and the flight of money compounded by increasing cost of labor. It is gaining a notorious reputation of creating and exploiting poor nation’s solvency, squashing neighbors and selling obsolescence across the globe (recollect how your electrical and other goods specifically made is China have become durable and short lasting).
What should be done?
First and foremost, Modi has to move beyond strongman to strategist. A nation survives on vision and not just statesmanship. I have identified few areas that will help boost the productivity at the individual level, jump start the GDP and improve the health of the economy.
- Foundational Infrastructure
- Roads and Railways
- Satellite Cities and Telecom
- Innovation in Farming
- Revamp Agricultural Supply Chain
- Environment and Pollution
- Sewage and Containment
- Social Re-Engineering
The endemic water deficiency mandates saving water, reviving rivers and building colossal connected canals for transporting water are a crucial and critical need of the growing population. It goes beyond saying that water is required for Agriculture, Industry and daily use. Lack of water will result in immediate and nationwide chaos.
Roads and Railways:
Not Airways or Bullet Trains. Though the road network is improved significantly in the last decade, it is still only sufficient for the next 5-7 years. Cities are still clogged and they will get further cluttered. Roads and rail are required first, that’s how most population and goods move across the nation. Only few travel by Air or Bullet Trains. Remember, those costly built rail networks in Africa that cost their nation a hefty and heavy loan serving overwhelming burden. India should not repeat that.
Satellite Cities with Telecom/Internet:
Creation of satellite cities is a key to decongest and reducing the risk. We live in a connected world and to be on the forefront, Internet and fibreoptic becomes a foundational utility.
Innovation in Farming:
The last time a major innovation was done under Green Revolution by Lal Bahadur Shastri. Thereafter no radical change has been effected in agriculture. Other than small incremental changes to innovation in productivity, least has been done to the farming supply chain. Current risk management is based on disbursing cash to those drought affected (after an increase in suicide rates) or those with inadequate production.
Revamp Agricultural Supply Chain:
Perishable crops are still creating significant damage. Over production is still a rampant issue. Mid and Long term Storage of crop is limited to grains, very few and insufficient facilities exists for increasing the shelf life of vegetables. India has enough space to store Grains though. Value added product infrastructure is significantly missing.
Environment and Pollution:
Everyone has a recollection of the ‘Delhi as a Gas Chamber’ Situation like Delhi are a commonplace across North India. Though a significant stride has been made towards harnessing solar power and unleashing energy from nuclear (rather than coal), India’s dependence on fossil fuel is significant. To move a huge behemoth and diverse country to alternate source of energy, India needs to invest significantly in innovations across multiple sectors.
Sewerage and containment:
This is still a massive problem. Open defecation are a vestige of a long drawn culture. Unfortunately, no institutional efforts have been made to harness gas and manure from human bioexcrements. Name sake potty’s have been built to take time leverage. Both electricity and gas for industrial use can be harnessed from “Gobar Gas” plants. As a child, I still remember we had one GG Plant and it was my duty to buy cow dung on my way back from morning tuition. I would make the slurry and pour in the tank and go to school. That was 1979-80. I promise, GGP will never fall in disrepute.
It is utmost important for a nation to find and or reinvent its own identity. India is going through those pangs right now. It is at a confluence of several mingling streams. India cannot take recluse to older achievements. If it had the potential in the past for defining humanity, does not guarantee that it will have the same potential to influence the future of humanity or even define the potential of its nationhood. None of these factors discussed above will bring that constant trajectory of intellectual and spiritual achievement. That will only be guided by Social Re-engineering. Currently, society is defined by Facebook and Whats Up University, which in themselves are manipulated to sub serve our inner mortal and material trappings.
Social engineering around several issues is a need of the time. Issues such as existing in a plural world in harmony, acceptance of differing views and debate in moderation, women’s emancipation, abandoning the vestiges of ‘Chatur Varna’, adoption of a true pursuit of logical and scientific belief, bringing the inner layers into the evolving cycles of current times, creating didactic pathways that would support the emerging needs of occupations at an optimal pace are the need of the time. The list runs long however, not having a vision and a strategy is an absolutely unpardonable excuse for those in ruling the nation.
I am less worried about the current slowdown. Those are cyclic. They will occur as the tides of time will ebb and rise. However, not making concerted attempts in shaping nation building is definitely wrong if not criminal. Accepted that the Economic currents are adverse, however, people demand creative, strategic and effective leadership to avoid stagnation, slowing down increasing headwind resulting in a healthy slow landing of the economy rather than a disastrous landing. Leaders of all hues and color have to collectively dedicate themselves towards these vision, irrespective of their commitment to ideologies, being in the seat of power or having the ability to influence.
A Gentle Request:
If the above makes sense to you, may I request you to spread the awareness. Finally, it is the masses that define the polity and politicians do what is the sentiment. Let us all create that positive and productive virtuous cycle of sentiments.
More to write later…
Also Visit – US and the World Economy here https://wp.me/p7XEWW-1A
I disagree with below Excerpts from The Hindu below –
The root cause of this rupturing of our social fabric is the Modi government’s ‘mala fide unless proven otherwise’ doctrine of governance. The premise of the government’s policy framework seems to be that economic participants have mala-fide intent unless they can prove otherwise. This suspicion that every industrialist, banker, policymaker, regulator, entrepreneur and citizen is out to defraud the government has led to a complete breakdown of trust in our society. This has halted economic development, with bankers unable to lend, industrialists unable to invest and policymakers unable to act.