Trump or Sanders – anguish unlike Brexit

It seems, the Hispanic, Afro-American, College Educated, Women and White Collar votes are strongly leaning towards the democrats. Whereas, the Have-Not’s comprising of rural voters, less educated, elderly, conservative and significant part of Republican establishment are leaning towards the Republican nominee. Irrespective of who is likely to win, the next President has a greater responsibility of being inclusive and stymie this looming frustration.

Trumpism or Sandersim – anguish unlike Brexit

Brexit, made a cataclysmic turn, not alone with UK (Scotland, not to forget) and European Union. It was a reflection of a class of society that was completely left behind due to globalization and technology transformation creating massive commercialization. Even if Brexit would have lost, England would have had to deal with that massive section that lagged way behind in their quest towards Globalization.

Trump and Sander:

Initially, let’s visit Sander. An anti-establishment candidate for contesting democratic primaries, whose philosophy received a massive following as he almost closely, trailed Hilary Clinton on both votes and public funds.

His campaign focused on stopping the erosion of American Middle Class with Campaign Finance Reforms. He opposed influence and domination of National Politics and Policies by Wall Street and Financial institutions. He also proposed increasing the tax on the wealthy, scrapping NAFTA, CAFTA and anything with Cross Continental Free Trade Association, such as Key Stone pipeline. He espoused an alternate ‘family value’, wherein, family was at the center which included increased paid sick time off, paid vacations, and paid family leave, without the Republican limitation of Anti-abortion ( women in control of their bodies). Another key proposal was to decrease the college loans, which the graduate are overburdened, after completing college.

He is a reflection of middle class angst that was brewing, similar to Brexit. Unlike Brexit, Clinton and DNC partially tapped that frustration and absorbing that anxiety into their agenda before it grew into a momentous revolt.

Trump is a euphemism for Nativist, White Hard Working Conservatives who are left behind in the early 20th century globalization phenomenon.  Unfortunately, except for expressing that frustration, Trump is nowhere closer to bridging that ideology.

As the polls started pouring in, an article in Bloomberg advised investors to go into fetal position. Not alone US but the entire world is glued towards 2016 US Presidential Elections. Politics has always been divisive, however, 2016 elections has crossed all the bars and thresholds of standards within US politics. The outcome is awaited with far greater anxiety than any other general election.

What’s the outcome? Well, let’s look at the electoral math and not be drowned by real time running polls. Several polls have indicated Clinton’s double digit lead falling precipitously after the FBI’s recent announcement of Clinton’s supposed wrong doing. In fact, to me, this is electoral sentimentalism, and shivers, not an established reflection of actual outcome.

Generally, US elections are decided by the Independents and to a smaller extent by the erosion of the mainstream parties and their support.

For almost since the Democratic Party nomination, it was clear that Hilary Clinton would win. She was gradually and steadily building base and demolishing Republican citadel state after state. That trend reversed just some ten days ago when more email concerns were revealed by partisan FBI.

Irrespective of the stock market shivers (S&P registering unprecedented losses since 1980), and the poll numbers, the electoral logic favors a Clinton win.

The key question each of the constituents will ask –

Hispanics: Do I send my parents back home, disconnect with my motherland?

Afro-Americans: Do I belong here?

Women: Is this how i and my daughter would be treated?

College Educated: So will be farming or fabricating again? I though we are climbing the ladder of innovation.

Muslims: Go Home baby, Go where you belong.

Wall Street: Will he return my money or sue me for paying?

Republicans: Oh no, he just made us Liberals and aggressive, I am no longer pious now.

Immigrants: So are we giving American back to the Native Indians? After all, we all are Immigrants.

Collectively, We all ask ourselves –

Certainly, we don’t have a great choice, but do we want a President who –

  1. Has a labile temper
  2. Roll back our 200 years of Immigrant history and send us back to farm?
  3. Deal with renewed aggressiveness towards – Hispanics, Blacks, Women, Business, and make us vulnerable to Terrorist?

Hilary Clinton Support base –

Hispanic populations almost – 63% versus 30%

Afro-American almost – 88% versus 6%

College Student between 18 to 35 – 54% versus 35%

Graduates and Post graduate – 58% versus 35%

Women – 55 versus 35%

 

Donald Trump Support base –

Older White American – 55% versus 40%

White Rural Population – 72% versus 23%

Men 50% versus 41%

Less Educated 55% versus 38%

Her numbers gradually started decreasing and as of this writing, those are hovering over Trump barely a few points within margin of error. Are we likely to be riddled by Brexit like shock? Let’s review what’s like to emerge after 60 hours.

Despite widespread understanding of Trump’s unethical, uncivilized and immoral means, Trump still holds strong support base. That’s a strong reflection of the disenchantment with the mainstream politics and the a significant section of ‘Have Not’s’, left behind by the convention ‘Have’s’. These two polar frustrations will dominated the 2016 presidential elections campaign and beyond.

It seems, the Hispanic, Afro-American, College Educated, Women and White Collar votes are strongly leaning towards the democrats. Whereas, the Have-Not’s comprising of rural voters, less educated, elderly, conservative and significant part of Republican establishment are leaning towards the Republican nominee. Irrespective of who is likely to win, the next President has a greater responsibility of being inclusive and stymie this looming frustration.

Interesting reading:

The demographic trends shaping American politics in 2016 and beyond

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/27/the-demographic-trends-shaping-american-politics-in-2016-and-beyond/

 

The Economist | White voters: What’s going on

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709596-support-donald-trump-working-class-whites-not-what-it-seems-whats-going?frsc=dg%7Cc

 

Brexit and Trump: Populism or Manipulation?

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/06/page/2/?print=pdf-search

 

The Sanders voters who are backing Trump: has Brexit changed their minds?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/01/bernie-sanders-voters-donald-trump-brexit

 

On Brexit, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders: What a seismic vote in European history will tell us

http://observer.com/2016/06/on-brexit-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders/

 

The Economist | Election brief: Foreign policy: World-shaking

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709565-hillary-clintons-foreign-policy-would-be-similar-barack-obamas-donald-trumps-would-be?frsc=dg%7Cc

The Resentments Trump Represents

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/11/03/the-resentments-trump-represents/

 

Should India ban Pakistani artists?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

After the internal turmoil evoked ‘Post Uri’, rhetoric’s and the surgical strikes, it’s obviously a natural knee jerk reaction to say ‘No’ – We don’t keep any relations with Pakistan and it’s Citizen?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

Let’s step back and understand the build up to current conflagration is a byproduct of the establishment, a compromised democracy where the army rules and dictates. It’s the army and not the common man, who is responsible. In fact, they are the ones that are deprived. Especially in the case of Pakistan, where democracy never had an opportunity to anchor and prosper, we sincerely have to give dual benefit of doubt. So the current struggle is not with Pakistani (Citizen) but with Pakistan (Establishment).

Understand, common man, be it any country, region or religion, has those same patterns. Their concerns, aspirations, anxieties and struggle are same as ours. Their happiness is the same as ours. Our rouse is against Pakistani establishment, not against their citizen, especially in the case of Pakistan, where they lack that ability to mold the political opinion. If they are legally here, they work within the legal framework, then they should not be declined the opportunity to work in Bollywood.

Ok, if you are still not convinced, let me ask you? In a hypothetical situation, if Indian Government commits a grave situation and US decided to send back all those innocent who emigrated from India, would you support that?

If you are still not convinced, let me ask yet another question. What if few Indian citizens commit a grave crime, do you think India US or any country where that hypothetical situation happens, should cut all diplomatic ties despite the Indian Government being on right foot?

Someone may naturally ask, will they treat Hrithik Roshan the same? Well, let’s not collude our value systems even if the answer is no. To be true, if the politicians or radicals don’t force their opinion, you will most likely see Pakistani voting to see him perform in Pakistan.

Well, let’s differentiate between Citizen and Ruling elite. We can’t preach love, at least let’s treat every citizen with dignity and opportunity. We expect the same and we should reciprocal the same. Let the merit of their performance decide where they ought to be in the Industry. Well, if we differentiate citizen from establishment, I believe, that will embolden our faith in having them continue as artist in India.

Art, like sublime thoughts defining philosophy, transpires humanity. Artists attempt to cross those barriers of religious, geopolitical boundaries, at times which become timeless and invaluable. Boundaries and affiliations have a finite span and keep changing, whereas art remains within the realms of humanity. Such is a supreme nature of art. An artist is an object of depicting those abstract expressions. Fortunately for us, artists are the medium and we humans are bestowed with the supreme sense of that expression. While, it is true that these artists originate in Pakistan, this notion of region is self-defeating and limited. While appreciate art and artist, we should cross those barrier that limit our perception towards art and artists.

With love towards India – Ash

No more of Bollywood for Pakistani artists? http://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/no-more-of-bollywood-for-pakistani-artists/story-yLQJhjt6yQtcGNf3JqCiLM.html

Ban on Pakistani artists http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-ban-on-pakistani-artists-what-om-puri-nagesh-kukunoor-nawazuddin-siddiqui-and-randeep-hooda-said-on-the-issue-2260684