Cataclysmic drift: What’s in for India?

Briefly, India would be preferred over China, India won’t get outsourced jobs as much as it had earlier, India based Global companies such as Tata, Reliance, Tech companies etc. will have to employee local white working and overall, he may possibly reduce Visa and Citizenship quota. We can’t have a war with China or Pakistan and take US support for granted. Coalitions built with Obama on fire.

 

The implications of Trump’s policies are still not clear but based on his election manifesto and speeches and his victory speech clamp down on immigration, renegotiation of free trade agreements, rebuilding infrastructure

Briefly, India would be preferred over China, India won’t get outsourced jobs as much as it had earlier, India based Global companies such as Tata, Reliance, Tech companies Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant etc. will have to employee local white Americans and overall, he may possibly reduce visa and citizenship quota beyond those reduced by President Obama.

If India goes for a war with Pakistan or China, they can’t take US support for granted. Coalitions built with Obama are very much on fire, if those are not consistent with policy.

Political:

  • Coalitions built with Obama Presidency will continue but with a reciprocal basis, only if that benefits US (under Trump regime).
  • You fight your wars, don’t bother us. All that means is, India and US can collaborate in South China but if it is Kashmir, you fight your war with Pakistan, if it is Muslim terrorism, we collaborate.
  • NATO and Other Military Coalitions likely to be downgraded

Macro-Economic:

  • Seismic shift is likely to cause dollar depreciation. Rupee will likely appreciate. FDI in India to increase.
  • Current scenario favors India as one of the top destinations for (FDI ) foreign investment since growth projections are amongst the best and Governance is decisive.
  • Tech Buying Opportunity such as M&A likely to accelerate

Business:

  • Immigrant visas likely to reduce along with Citizenship applications.
  • Offshore companies working in US will have to employ locals, specifically hardware and software companies will be impacted
  • Outsourcing will be truncated, oversees jobs that propel US job market will be supported

Note: This blog will keep getting updated on a regular basis as new research trickles in.

Selected reading:

Trump Win May Lead to Tech Buying Opportunity, Mizuho Says

http://bloom.bg/2fDHmtU

Market turmoil eases as investors weigh Trump’s plan for economy
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-markets-bg-a7439bac-a67a-11e6-ba46-53db57f0e351-20161109-story.html

Q&A: What does Donald Trump’s Presidential victory mean for the economy?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/09/qa-what-does-donald-trumps-presidential-victory-mean-for-the-eco/

The Economist – World politics: Foreign policy – World-shaking
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709565-hillary-clintons-foreign-policy-would-be-similar-barack-obamas-donald-trumps-would-be?frsc=dg%7Cc

(This page is under construction. The blog herein is authors personal opinion, for any and all transactions, you are recommended to seek a financial adviser.)

War is inevitable

A time comes when we have to take the weapon in our hand and fight but not before we have explored alternate options of resolutions. We should not hold PM Modi responsible for the implications of the war. It’s a common man’s decision, he should act and the time is now.

War is inevitable, have we done our ground work?

Twenty years back, when I talked with my friends, family and colleagues, the intensity of angst with Pakistan was simmering. Now, when I see the reactions on social media and from my first hand interaction, I see it is sizzling for war. PM Modi is a reflection of the intensity of outcry from decades of tolerance and frustration of exploring options with Pakistan. Obviously there is a ground swell for forceful assertion, well we know we will dominate that one on one war, that presumes a scenario driven by rage, years of cross border tolerance and attack on our sovereignty and interference in our internal matters.  It is despicable, in no terms acceptable but is it enough to go for war?

If we think that war with Pakistan will be an unilateral affair, we are grossly wrong. First, Pakistan has a distorted perception of the compromise of their Self (respect) and Abru. Attack from India further compromises that vexed self-righteous position. A reaction is bound to follow, it’s adding insult to injury, reaction may range from normal cross border skirmishes (low probability, low impact) to extended and extensive war (high probability, medium impact) to use of nuclear arsenals (low probability, very high impact).

Understand, Pakistan sincerely and truly want to hurt India. They will do everything with that intent. Obviously, India will retaliate, of course with all its might (possibly with nuclear arsenals, if Pakistan goes no holds bar war). The outcome – Pakistan will be permanently obliterated and go into oblivion but we have seen, when anarchy establishes in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and surrounding area, it looms longer and bounces back spewing deadly hatred, not just engulfing India but the entire world.

That’s a scenario presuming one to one wrestling (kushti) between Pakistan and India. Matters don’t remain as simple, China our biggest adversary and the current provocateur, will add fire to the fuel. Our do called recent alignment with the world order will turn their back on India. Irrespective of the provocation, India would have lost the stature – moral, strategic, economic etc. India and Pakistan, both arising from common ethnic stalk, would have permanently harmed each other. China, would have executed their game plan on the subcontinent.

I have already talked about the fallout in terms of human, tangible and intangible losses. We are poorly and completely inapt in dealing with these fallout. With this war, we will push our country back by at least few decades, poverty, lack of opportunities and social frustrations would exacerbate current angst (for details, refer to ‘No place for Bravado!’ (https://mymilieu.org/2016/09/22/no-place-for-bravado).

In software, they always recommend to fix the bug early on, the later we choose to fix, the bigger the cost. Obviously, not having resolved this problem for decades will cost us all these losses. I am weighing in favor of addressing the root cause, we need strategies and we need diplomacy. Do we have those enough? Given a problem space, we need to explore newer options when existing options don’t work. War is an extreme expression of frustration and giving up.

These are not times of repartee or knee jerk reaction, these are times of gaining strength through patience, exploring options for resolution, using strategies etc. We should never be scared of war. War is never a non-option, but yes war is a last option. Even Lord Shiva, the Divine deity tolerated injustice, Nilkanth drank the poison. A time comes when we have to take the weapon in our hand and fight but not before we have exhausted alternate options of resolutions. We should not hold PM Modi responsible for the implications of the war. It’s a common man’s decision, he should act and the time is now.

Am I supporting Pakistan?

In no way I am supporting Pakistan, neither its tactics nor its strategies or activities. I strongly feel, the needs of the time are to explore further options within this problem space.

At times, war becomes unavoidable, says PM Narendra Modi – http://toi.in/GWXtqZ34/a20ei

India and Pakistan: ‘We are like a divorced couple’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-37555309

Yuddha, Buddha: PM gives statesmanlike Dussehra speech, senior BJP leaders including ministers must heed it

Yuddha, Buddha: PM gives statesmanlike Dussehra speech, senior BJP leaders including ministers must heed it

Seven Ways to Wage War on Pakistan, Several Reasons Not to Do So

Have seen destruction, don’t go to war: villagers in India-Pakistan border areas

War or No War? India Debates Its Course of Action Against Pakistan

How India can motivate Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism

 

Reactive Aggression or Proactive Pragmatism

Pakistan is fast emerging as a classic example of a failed state due to adoption of a vexed and vitiated philosophy confounding its operating model. It is not only a laggard on most development milestones, but fast emerging as a hotbed of international terrorism, lawlessness and despotism and manipulation.

Unfortunate though, an impressive ideology of its founders has been lost and it has become a cauldron of poverty, backwardness, radical views, brutality, injustice, violence, lack of opportunities, and a melting pot for radicalism and terrorism. Terrorism, hand in glove with the Military, is flourishing in Pakistan.

Should we react to recent provocations from Pakistan? Or should we explore new strategies to handle this menace of cross border terrorism? These are trying times in our history. This generation and the ones hereafter will bear the brunt of these decisions. Hope wisdom prevails.

It is the destiny of these two nations, seventy years ago, some amongst our own ethnic stock separated on lines of having a country based on religious ideology. Pakistan was thus born. However, over a period of time, it got enmeshed in an internecine and fractious internal strife due to the nefarious nexus between terrorists, military establishment and politicians with an operating model of vengeance, hatred and jealousy.

India, as we know the other nation, embarked upon a development path with comprehensive vision and plan despite being riddled with poverty, deprivation or resources and resultant complex challenges . Modern India emerged through persistence on all of its challenges but a positive philosophy (guided by nationalist leaders with mature governance and a thriving democracy weaved with plural ideologies. India, as it stands today, is leading on several fronts as an international leader,  despite the challenges.

Pakistan is fast emerging as a classic example of a failed state due to adoption of vexed and vitiated philosophy confounding its operating model. It is not only a laggard on most development milestones but notoriously ahead on malicious intent and act, primarily a hotbed of international terrorism, lawlessness and despotism and manipulation. Unfortunate though, an impressive ideology  of its founders has not been successful to influence their operating model and it has become a cauldron of poverty, backwardness, radical views, brutality, injustice, violence, lack of opportunities, and a melting pot for radicalism and terrorism. Terrorism and Military is an industry that flourishes in Pakistan.

Any surgical strike is unlikely to subdue this industry and stop their cross border provocations. Future attempts by the terrorist would morph into more sophisticated, planned and coordinated attacks. While sentiments on waging a full-fledged war are understandable, it is hard to conceive the implications if ultimate weapons of mass destruction are used. It’s a perplexing to understand how to stop this menace.

For India, that would not only be militarily engaging but it will also mean keeping the country in a war readiness posture, not just in the short run but at least for sizable duration of time. This would consume significant revenue and funds would be diverted away from growth providing opportunities.

If we understand Pakistan as a failed model, the key driver towards this failure is the diversion of growth revenue towards militarization and persistent military adventurism against India and Afghanistan. We want to avoid the trap of diverting away from growth. Restrain, thus was pragmatic as ultra-low scale loss better as against significant buildup of capability from defense, to surveillance and resilience.

Should we disembark (on provocation) and walk the reactive path of knee jerk response to emotions (of few soldiers getting killed on the border) or should we explore and adopt new strategies to handle this menace of cross border terrorism? These are trying times in our history. This generation and the ones hereafter will bear the brunt of these decisions. Hope wisdom prevails.

Should India ban Pakistani artists?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

After the internal turmoil evoked ‘Post Uri’, rhetoric’s and the surgical strikes, it’s obviously a natural knee jerk reaction to say ‘No’ – We don’t keep any relations with Pakistan and it’s Citizen?

I would say otherwise. We should not let the political dynamics between countries influence our one to one individual interaction and ideological differences. Despite presuming that the current Pakistan political-military establishment holds an ideological antipathy towards India, India should let Pakistani artists work as long as it falls within the legal purview and framework.

I would say, we ought to build that one to one individual relationship with Pakistani nationals, irrespective of the conflagration and juggernaut existing between the two countries.

Let’s step back and understand the build up to current conflagration is a byproduct of the establishment, a compromised democracy where the army rules and dictates. It’s the army and not the common man, who is responsible. In fact, they are the ones that are deprived. Especially in the case of Pakistan, where democracy never had an opportunity to anchor and prosper, we sincerely have to give dual benefit of doubt. So the current struggle is not with Pakistani (Citizen) but with Pakistan (Establishment).

Understand, common man, be it any country, region or religion, has those same patterns. Their concerns, aspirations, anxieties and struggle are same as ours. Their happiness is the same as ours. Our rouse is against Pakistani establishment, not against their citizen, especially in the case of Pakistan, where they lack that ability to mold the political opinion. If they are legally here, they work within the legal framework, then they should not be declined the opportunity to work in Bollywood.

Ok, if you are still not convinced, let me ask you? In a hypothetical situation, if Indian Government commits a grave situation and US decided to send back all those innocent who emigrated from India, would you support that?

If you are still not convinced, let me ask yet another question. What if few Indian citizens commit a grave crime, do you think India US or any country where that hypothetical situation happens, should cut all diplomatic ties despite the Indian Government being on right foot?

Someone may naturally ask, will they treat Hrithik Roshan the same? Well, let’s not collude our value systems even if the answer is no. To be true, if the politicians or radicals don’t force their opinion, you will most likely see Pakistani voting to see him perform in Pakistan.

Well, let’s differentiate between Citizen and Ruling elite. We can’t preach love, at least let’s treat every citizen with dignity and opportunity. We expect the same and we should reciprocal the same. Let the merit of their performance decide where they ought to be in the Industry. Well, if we differentiate citizen from establishment, I believe, that will embolden our faith in having them continue as artist in India.

Art, like sublime thoughts defining philosophy, transpires humanity. Artists attempt to cross those barriers of religious, geopolitical boundaries, at times which become timeless and invaluable. Boundaries and affiliations have a finite span and keep changing, whereas art remains within the realms of humanity. Such is a supreme nature of art. An artist is an object of depicting those abstract expressions. Fortunately for us, artists are the medium and we humans are bestowed with the supreme sense of that expression. While, it is true that these artists originate in Pakistan, this notion of region is self-defeating and limited. While appreciate art and artist, we should cross those barrier that limit our perception towards art and artists.

With love towards India – Ash

No more of Bollywood for Pakistani artists? http://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/no-more-of-bollywood-for-pakistani-artists/story-yLQJhjt6yQtcGNf3JqCiLM.html

Ban on Pakistani artists http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-ban-on-pakistani-artists-what-om-puri-nagesh-kukunoor-nawazuddin-siddiqui-and-randeep-hooda-said-on-the-issue-2260684

 

Watching International Reaction to Surgical Strike?

This is the post excerpt.

What Next? A change of attitude towards resolution of festering issues is definitely concerning. Such massive support from the masses, at times get deprecating and self-reinforcing and slides us further into complacency and eventually into a war.

Pakistan, without a moral ground and international support, had to be in a denial mode obviously. Diplomatically, it huddled and tried lobbying across the power centers. That’s the matter with credibility. Once you lose it, it’s hard to gain or garner support.

The surgical strike did not make much of an international impact despite its potential to catapult into a major conflict. Ban Ki Moon offered mediation. US and most developed nations supported India’s posturing.

For India, it is jubilation. social media is caught with frenzy. It’s almost celebratory tone. After decades of tolerance and encroachment on its sovereign soil, it responded. Yes, a transient jubilation is morale boosting. However, a change of attitude towards resolution of festering issues is definitely concerning. Such massive support from the masses, at times get deprecating and self-reinforcing and slides us further into complacency and eventually into a war.

Statement made by the India’s permanent representative at the UN was a mature act as compared to those made by the defense ministers from either country, meant for the consumption of the general populace.

Selected citations

Germany backs India’s strikes, says ‘every state has the right to defend its territory from global terrorism’ –  http://toi.in/itSTJY98/a20ei

Russia welcomes surgical strikes : http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/russia-welcomes-surgical-strikes/article9181510.ece

US lawmakers support India’s surgical strikes across LoC –  http://toi.in/D69phb/a20ei

An unclean slate http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-relation-surgical-strikes-uri-attack-pm-modi-3063892/

Sabre Rattling over Kashmir
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03js4x9

Could There Be War Over Kashmir?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03js4nz

‘Declare Pak Terror Sponsor’: Petition In US Qualifies For Official Response. http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/white-house-petition-to-declare-pak-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-crosses-100-000-signatures-1466880

Democracy has not been tailored to Pakistan’s environment: Pervez Musharraf – http://toi.in/kC0JxY/a20ei

Blog: Terrorism no longer a low-cost option for Pak –  http://toi.in/fXGMXb/a20ei

Pakistan not getting support in UN on surgical strikes issue: Akbaruddin : http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-not-getting-support-at-un-over-surgical-strikes-akbaruddin/article9172142.ece

US lawmakers support India’s surgical strikes across LoC –  http://toi.in/D69phb/a20ei

India says troops cross Kashmir border to attack as crisis escalates https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/29/pakistani-soldiers-killed-surgical-strikes-kashmir-india

India relocates 10,000 from around Kashmir as tensions rise http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/01/asia/kashmir-tensions-evacuations/index.html

India Kashmir strike: The view from Pakistan http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37518200

India strikes at Pakistan-based militants, escalating tensions in Kashmir region http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/pakistan-india-kashmir-1.3783536

Kashmir profile – Timeline
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-16069078

Kashmir – is peace possible?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03ghtd6

Conflict in Kashmir, the prospects for peace
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03bh4zm

 

Uniform Civil Code

Religion is a personal and private affair, you have right to practice your religion but within the confines of your defined space (home, place of worship or confined gathering). Societal life (presuming multicultural plural society) should be defined by legal statutory framework. We should not encroach onto the personal space meant for others. Why? It would mean imposing our values and ideals upon them.

Debate on common civil code across nation….my response to this topic..may be lop sided, Nitin Aslam and other rational minds, kindly correct or add.

Here is my simple view – religion is a personal and private affair, you have right to practice your religion but within the confines of your defined space (home, place of worship or confined gathering). Societal life (presuming multicultural plural society) should be defined by legal statutory framework. Yes, we will see overlapping and conflicting gray areas. To address these conflicts, we should not encroach onto the personal space meant for others. Why? It would mean imposing our values and ideals upon them. Should majority view be imposed upon a minority group? Naturally, it happens, conscientiously, we should avoid.
Example – In India, it is a common practice to spank kids (or at least it was), those standards are equated with child abuse in western world. Initially, when Asians were discovered with those so called brutal (western perspective), they took away kids from such households (check for coining and abuse). Now, it is accepted practice to understand such behavior as normal love affection care spectrum.
It has become a norm here to understand cultural sensitivity and respond accordingly. What’s nice about US is not that they don’t err but they change and build nation with inclusivity.

India Needs a Sincere Debate on Social Mobility

I proposed some radical views way back in 1985 on the changes and after 30 years those are still valid.

I had extensive discussions with a son of the deputy CM who was a close friend and senior at GMC Nagpur and he being from the same class of so called deprived, I had very eloquent and open debate on who should get the underprivileged benefits.

1. Proposal was to get reservation once in academic life
2. In profession/career, they can possibly get it once or may be twice
3. Once the family gets the reservation, the progeny should not get reservations
4. Those with economically backward should be included in the system
5. Those with absence of milieu should also benefit from reservations

Of course, these need refinement but these are still valid. I am for reservation but with major amendments. We cannot be having a section of society with lack or under privileges. We still have to bear it… We all have been victims of reservations sometimes in life but we as a nation have to bear the burden to get those underprivileged unto mark.

It is inaccurate to think that we don’t have extempore and outliers in this community. How can you forget Ambedkar and people of his like from India. Of course, we have the likes of Carl Lewis, Michael Jackson, Williams’s sisters & scores of basketball, music and Hollywood luminaries in United States.

The debate on reservation is not about those outliers, it’s about those who fall within the 2 SD populations. I am not suggesting the reservations should continue in its current form or order. It definitely needs over hauling.

It’s about underprivileged and equal opportunity in non-selected fields. It’s not about a class that is the current beneficiary. Let me rephrase it. Why should, ex a child from business or a Brahmin who is deprived of privileges, not qualify for those? We all know a simple observation, a doctor’s son becomes a doctor easily, a businessman’s son steps in his Dad’s footsteps. A politician’s son can successfully become a politician, of course because of his family connections but more because of the traits he learned while he was growing. A Patel can start running a motel right when he is 18 but change the professional aspirations. Let that doctors kid run a business, or that businessman’s kid become a professional and we realize, they both don’t fare well. Why? They lack the milieu, that environment which nurtured those traits. Milieu imparts a whole lot of advantage. Conversely, it deprives many for lack of it. Summarily, it is those deprived that need an incentive, an opportunity to grow, an equal opportunity, let’s call it reservation. Hardin Patel or few upper class people demanding reservation are not wrong.
The way we want to avoid societal content amongst those enjoying the benefits of current reservation is inappropriate, so also it is wrong to create another class and possibly community of deprived aspirations amongst current non-milieu people. These are my views, unchanged for the last 30 years.

I agree, this system if reservation has been exploited by many including politicians. India is not the only country with reservations. India is not the only country with reservations, if you review current world political order, you will see many countries having those guarantees in place for deprived lot.

Equal opportunity guarantees are again guarantees to a limited sector of opportunities, not a whole life cycle. We in Maharashtra never had reservations for super specialization.

There is no reservation for the post of top executives including top leadership positions like PM, President etc. So, we do have no reservations too. Again, again I am insisting we should have it in certain places and not universal.

To become a smart nation, we need to drop those vestiges of the past and adopt a new model for growth. Just not get and implement technology from the west to develop smart cities. Someone asked me yesterday, let’s understand the upstream questions. You cannot be asking me for a blind folded commitment. So is true here… To have meaningful change, let’s work on people and process. It’s fine to replicate smart models for infrastructure from the west, but to be smart country, let’s change.

Let’s drop these shackles from the past and move on. On reservations, we still have that four tier approach on Sanatan Dharma existed or was created. We should expand it to exclude that model and expand it to include a deprived underprivileged model. That will include a wider gamut of population. It should be about under privileges under deprived (UPUD). Don’t give knee jerk formulated responses; think out of the box on what I suggested and after reflection, we can always talk.

Why India needs a new debate on caste quotas http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-34082770.

This needs to change, Now!