The implications of Trump’s policies are still not clear but based on his election manifesto and speeches and his victory speech clamp down on immigration, renegotiation of free trade agreements, rebuilding infrastructure
Briefly, India would be preferred over China, India won’t get outsourced jobs as much as it had earlier, India based Global companies such as Tata, Reliance, Tech companies Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant etc. will have to employee local white Americans and overall, he may possibly reduce visa and citizenship quota beyond those reduced by President Obama.
If India goes for a war with Pakistan or China, they can’t take US support for granted. Coalitions built with Obama are very much on fire, if those are not consistent with policy.
Political:
- Coalitions built with Obama Presidency will continue but with a reciprocal basis, only if that benefits US (under Trump regime).
- You fight your wars, don’t bother us. All that means is, India and US can collaborate in South China but if it is Kashmir, you fight your war with Pakistan, if it is Muslim terrorism, we collaborate.
- NATO and Other Military Coalitions likely to be downgraded
Macro-Economic:
- Seismic shift is likely to cause dollar depreciation. Rupee will likely appreciate. FDI in India to increase.
- Current scenario favors India as one of the top destinations for (FDI ) foreign investment since growth projections are amongst the best and Governance is decisive.
- Tech Buying Opportunity such as M&A likely to accelerate
Business:
- Immigrant visas likely to reduce along with Citizenship applications.
- Offshore companies working in US will have to employ locals, specifically hardware and software companies will be impacted
- Outsourcing will be truncated, oversees jobs that propel US job market will be supported
Note: This blog will keep getting updated on a regular basis as new research trickles in.
Selected reading:
Trump Win May Lead to Tech Buying Opportunity, Mizuho Says
Market turmoil eases as investors weigh Trump’s plan for economy
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-markets-bg-a7439bac-a67a-11e6-ba46-53db57f0e351-20161109-story.html
Q&A: What does Donald Trump’s Presidential victory mean for the economy?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/09/qa-what-does-donald-trumps-presidential-victory-mean-for-the-eco/
The Economist – World politics: Foreign policy – World-shaking
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709565-hillary-clintons-foreign-policy-would-be-similar-barack-obamas-donald-trumps-would-be?frsc=dg%7Cc
(This page is under construction. The blog herein is authors personal opinion, for any and all transactions, you are recommended to seek a financial adviser.)
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