Trump or Sanders – anguish unlike Brexit

Trumpism or Sandersim – anguish unlike Brexit

Brexit, made a cataclysmic turn, not alone with UK (Scotland, not to forget) and European Union. It was a reflection of a class of society that was completely left behind due to globalization and technology transformation creating massive commercialization. Even if Brexit would have lost, England would have had to deal with that massive section that lagged way behind in their quest towards Globalization.

Trump and Sander:

Initially, let’s visit Sander. An anti-establishment candidate for contesting democratic primaries, whose philosophy received a massive following as he almost closely, trailed Hilary Clinton on both votes and public funds.

His campaign focused on stopping the erosion of American Middle Class with Campaign Finance Reforms. He opposed influence and domination of National Politics and Policies by Wall Street and Financial institutions. He also proposed increasing the tax on the wealthy, scrapping NAFTA, CAFTA and anything with Cross Continental Free Trade Association, such as Key Stone pipeline. He espoused an alternate ‘family value’, wherein, family was at the center which included increased paid sick time off, paid vacations, and paid family leave, without the Republican limitation of Anti-abortion ( women in control of their bodies). Another key proposal was to decrease the college loans, which the graduate are overburdened, after completing college.

He is a reflection of middle class angst that was brewing, similar to Brexit. Unlike Brexit, Clinton and DNC partially tapped that frustration and absorbing that anxiety into their agenda before it grew into a momentous revolt.

Trump is a euphemism for Nativist, White Hard Working Conservatives who are left behind in the early 20^th century globalization phenomenon.  Unfortunately, except for expressing that frustration, Trump is nowhere closer to bridging that ideology.

As the polls started pouring in, an article in Bloomberg advised investors to go into fetal position. Not alone US but the entire world is glued towards 2016 US Presidential Elections. Politics has always been divisive, however, 2016 elections has crossed all the bars and thresholds of standards within US politics. The outcome is awaited with far greater anxiety than any other general election.

What’s the outcome? Well, let’s look at the electoral math and not be drowned by real time running polls. Several polls have indicated Clinton’s double digit lead falling precipitously after the FBI’s recent announcement of Clinton’s supposed wrong doing. In fact, to me, this is electoral sentimentalism, and shivers, not an established reflection of actual outcome.

Generally, US elections are decided by the Independents and to a smaller extent by the erosion of the mainstream parties and their support.

For almost since the Democratic Party nomination, it was clear that Hilary Clinton would win. She was gradually and steadily building base and demolishing Republican citadel state after state. That trend reversed just some ten days ago when more email concerns were revealed by partisan FBI.

Irrespective of the stock market shivers (S&P registering unprecedented losses since 1980), and the poll numbers, the electoral logic favors a Clinton win.

The key question each of the constituents will ask –

Hispanics: Do I send my parents back home, disconnect with my motherland?

Afro-Americans: Do I belong here?

Women: Is this how i and my daughter would be treated?

College Educated: So will be farming or fabricating again? I though we are climbing the ladder of innovation.

Muslims: Go Home baby, Go where you belong.

Wall Street: Will he return my money or sue me for paying?

Republicans: Oh no, he just made us Liberals and aggressive, I am no longer pious now.

Immigrants: So are we giving American back to the Native Indians? After all, we all are Immigrants.

Collectively, We all ask ourselves –

Certainly, we don’t have a great choice, but do we want a President who –

1. Has a labile temper
2. Roll back our 200 years of Immigrant history and send us back to farm?
3. Deal with renewed aggressiveness towards – Hispanics, Blacks, Women, Business, and make us vulnerable to Terrorist?

Hilary Clinton Support base –

Hispanic populations almost – 63% versus 30%

Afro-American almost – 88% versus 6%

College Student between 18 to 35 – 54% versus 35%

Graduates and Post graduate – 58% versus 35%

Women – 55 versus 35%

 

Donald Trump Support base –

Older White American – 55% versus 40%

White Rural Population – 72% versus 23%

Men 50% versus 41%

Less Educated 55% versus 38%

Her numbers gradually started decreasing and as of this writing, those are hovering over Trump barely a few points within margin of error. Are we likely to be riddled by Brexit like shock? Let’s review what’s like to emerge after 60 hours.

Despite widespread understanding of Trump’s unethical, uncivilized and immoral means, Trump still holds strong support base. That’s a strong reflection of the disenchantment with the mainstream politics and the a significant section of ‘Have Not’s’, left behind by the convention ‘Have’s’. These two polar frustrations will dominated the 2016 presidential elections campaign and beyond.

It seems, the Hispanic, Afro-American, College Educated, Women and White Collar votes are strongly leaning towards the democrats. Whereas, the Have-Not’s comprising of rural voters, less educated, elderly, conservative and significant part of Republican establishment are leaning towards the Republican nominee. Irrespective of who is likely to win, the next President has a greater responsibility of being inclusive and stymie this looming frustration.

Interesting reading:

The demographic trends shaping American politics in 2016 and beyond

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/27/the-demographic-trends-shaping-american-politics-in-2016-and-beyond/

 

The Economist | White voters: What’s going on

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709596-support-donald-trump-working-class-whites-not-what-it-seems-whats-going?frsc=dg%7Cc

 

Brexit and Trump: Populism or Manipulation?

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/06/page/2/?print=pdf-search

 

The Sanders voters who are backing Trump: has Brexit changed their minds?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/01/bernie-sanders-voters-donald-trump-brexit

 

On Brexit, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders: What a seismic vote in European history will tell us

http://observer.com/2016/06/on-brexit-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders/

 

The Economist | Election brief: Foreign policy: World-shaking

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21709565-hillary-clintons-foreign-policy-would-be-similar-barack-obamas-donald-trumps-would-be?frsc=dg%7Cc

The Resentments Trump Represents

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/11/03/the-resentments-trump-represents/