No place for bravado!

I drafted this on Sept 22, 2016 after understanding the intense war mongering currently prevailing back in India. I am seriously concerned worrying watching the sudden sullen temper after the Uri incidence. The air is rife at attacking Pakistan. I penned my thoughts. My perspective is less biased as I am away from the milieu and the happenings in the crucible. I am definitely not for war, not because I tow the line with our sixty years of political lineage but I feel the futility of war, especially with a ragged nation like Pakistan, which has nothing to lose except a few more frustrated men and some dilapidated buildings. Generally, I don’t solicit forwards but the simmering anger fueled by social media, need to be countered by anti-war views too. If you think appropriate, if you support this, please feel free to forward this link https://mymilieu.org/2016/09/22/.

No place for bravado!

That is yet another concerning development… Developments like this are likely to slip anytime into grave situations. I just hate to see India being a replica of Iraq or Syria. Pakistan anyways has dilapidated building and infrastructure in shambles. Pakistan cannot lose any further value. India will lose significant competitive edge internationally – Strategically, Politically and in Business. Rhetoric never helps and once you walk that path, you end up being committed to that process.

A morally deprived rag nation like Pakistan has nothing to lose, whereas, a nation like India will get embroiled with a swift or prolonged war (nuclear war may not be a distant option). Pakistan is a barbaric nation, ruled by army despots for several decades (where democracy never had a chance to grow and flourish), and dominated by radical Taliban’s and cunning partner like China, with its own animosity towards India. All these are fed by jealousy and frustration of years of retardation. Being at the bottom, Pakistan has nothing to lose. It is completely devoid of repute, ideologically hollow and lack any sort of credibility.

There is a ground swell for action and many in India, feel, this is the right time to respond to continuous incursions. How can we say this is the right time? In fact, it is right time for Pakistan to incite and provoke a war, they are cornered from all sides, even their best financial aid provider, have turned their back and have started calling them terrorist sponsors. Pakistan is frustrated on multiple fronts, right from political, economic, their own identity, ethnic strife, sectarian violence, regional factions and home grown terrorism, to name a few.  Add to this, they are seeing other emerging issues newly emerging issues such as Baluchistan, Gilgit clamoring for independence. What’s next for them – a natural meltdown, an implosion on its way?  A war will help them consolidate their nation behind their rhetoric of hollow Intifada and support of terrorism. How do we deal? – Simply leave them alone! Keep them on ‘Time Out’! That’s exactly how the most affected countries from western hemisphere are treating them. If you leave them alone, they will go into natural disintegration, no need to aid that process.

I am not for letting Pakistan go scot free. We have strategies, technology and credibility. We definitely have better options. Does that mean restrain is a weakness? No, seven decades of restrain is not enough, we have to be more creative in solving this menace. War, with its brute force, certainly is not the best option though. In fact, War should be the last one. It’s not war that we are worried about, we certainly will win the war. However, we will compromise significantly, both tangibly and intangibly. Compare India, we have earned tremendous international repute, respect and stature, irrespective of the field we ventured. Readers need no examples, it’s all across.

IAF airbases along western front on high alert, hold major air defense exercise –
http://toi.in/n5s4iZ/a20ai

Is there no smart option other than swift tactical attack with nuclear arsenals at stake, has a strong potential towards an all-out full-fledged war. Several other complex scenarios will emerge. None of those would favor a war. Nations go to war with best case scenario but the festering circumstances makes us deal with worst case scenario. Recent history is rife with many cases of tactical attacks resulting in long term engagements depriving nations of their valuable resources, both human and financial. Even economically advanced nations like US suffered through recent wars. While Pakistan has nothing to lose, India has a lot at stake. All our recent growth, prosperity and blueprint of emerging nation would be at stake or may be compromised if we are dragged in a provoked war. Worst case, if there is a nuclear attack, one or more of our major business hubs may be seriously destroyed with significant long lasting impact to our growth projections and massive loss of life and value. We will see a sea of humanity wiped out rightly. The impact may be massive than the one created at the time of partition. If we are affected by the widows of Jawans, we would hate to see the site of thousands of widows, orphans and parents without care taking kids.

That’s the human side of the loss after winning this war. Let’s visit the tangible effect. Immediate impact would be significant reduction of GDP (though it will rise in post aftermath of nation rebuilding) and international currency equilibrium will change significantly. FDI will be significantly impacted and we will see a net out-go of FDI with further depreciation of Rupee and significant loss of net asset value. We certainly know what is at stake. Intelligent and advanced countries have better option to restrain and nullify aggressive behavior.

Let’s visit another dimension –

Just see this as a strategy of China. China may be prodding Pakistan. Again, that’s a strategy to get India bogged down on one border. That may be their plan in neutralizing India now that US has partnered with India as a counter to their Asian and South China Sea policy. It would be wise to think that China will have another reason not to let us be part of the permanent member of UNSC and many other coveted international groups such as the NSG etc. If we so much detest Britisher’s despite our seventy years of freedom, in hind sight, we would hate Chinese game plan. That moment is now, let’s avoid a war, or any provocation for war.

When I talk with my brethren’s from India, I almost realize a ground swell urge to attack and teach a lesson. While those sentiments are correct, we are not sixth graders. Even they understand the consequences of physical engagement. Yes, we have been patient for seventy years and truth is, we will have to be more patient and explore other options. Recent progress should not give that sense of complacency. Israel can do that or US can enter Abbottabad, doesn’t mean we should do the same bravado!

With deep love and concern for India and Indian

Ash

Selected readings:

At UN, Sharif talks of `Intifada’ in J&K, India says Pak `in complete denial’ – http://toi.in/wWlBcb28/a20ei

Indian army’s anger over Kashmir killings http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37404332

The best among limited options http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/m-k-narayanan-on-indiapakistan-diplomacy-and-terrorism/article9128770.ece

Why India needs cool heads after Kashmir attack http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37405064